For several years, buying real estate in Tulum was relatively forgiving Rapid growth, international attention, aggressive development and rising prices meant that a strong market could sometimes compensate for an average investment decision A property did not necessarily have to be exceptional to appreciate A convincing render, an attractive location and a projected double digit return were often enough to get buyers interested That market no longer exists And that is not necessarily bad news Tulum has not stopped being interesting It has simply become a market where the numbers matter again For serious buyers, that may actually be an improvement The opportunities are still here But today, the difference between a good property and a bad one can be enormous — even when both look almost identical on Instagram The Market Is Forcing Buyers to Become More Selective The clearest example is the short term rental market According to AirDNA data updated in July 2026, Tulum had approximately 11,300 active short term rental listings , with average occupancy around 40% and an average daily rate of about $148 More importantly, average annual revenue per active listing was down 24 7% year over year , while RevPAR — one of the more useful measures of rental performance because it combines price and occupancy — was down approximately 18% Those numbers do not mean that nobody is making money in Tulum They mean something much more useful: The average property is not the investment case A well located, differentiated, correctly purchased and professionally operated property can perform very differently from the market average But buyers should no longer assume that simply owning an attractive apartment in Tulum automatically creates a successful investment The market now rewards selection 1 Stop Buying the Projected ROI One of the first numbers investors are normally shown is projected return 8% 10% 12% Sometimes more The problem is not necessarily that those projections are dishonest The problem is that they are usually based on assumptions Projected occupancy Projected nightly rates Projected operating expenses Projected appreciation And occasionally a very optimistic definition of what constitutes an expense A serious investment analysis should begin somewhere else Instead of asking: “What ROI is the developer projecting?” Ask: “What assumptions would have to be true for me to achieve that ROI?” Then test them What are comparable properties actually renting for? What occupancy are similar units achieving? What does property management cost? What are the HOA fees? How much should be reserved for maintenance, furniture replacement, utilities, insurance, platform commissions, taxes and periods without tenants? And most importantly: What happens to the investment if the optimistic scenario does not happen? That last question is usually more important than the brochure 2 Presale Is No Longer Automatically the Opportunity For years, one of the dominant narratives in Tulum was simple: Buy early Buy presale Capture appreciation during construction Sometimes that strategy worked extremely well But presale should never be treated as an asset class by itself It is simply one way of acquiring a property In today's market, buyers can often choose between: a property that exists, a property already operating, a motivated resale, a recently completed unit, or a development that will not be delivered for another one or two years That changes the equation completely If a completed resale property is available at a competitive price, the presale property has to justify why the buyer should accept additional development, construction, delivery and market risk Sometimes it can A genuinely exceptional project, developer, location or entry price may still make presale highly attractive But “it is presale” is no longer an investment thesis The question should be: What am I receiving in exchange for taking the additional risk? If there is no convincing answer, the