Executive view Tulum is not a binary investment story It is neither a destination that has “ended” nor a market that can be expected to resume boom time appreciation simply because tourism improves The more useful interpretation is that a concentrated investment model is being repriced The evidence points to a real supply and liquidity mismatch An InfoHabitat analysis reported in 2026 that units under construction in the Tulum market context rose from 1,466 in 2017 to 13,266 in 2023 The same reporting put annual residential sales at 3,487 in 2023 and 1,711 in 2025 , while average monthly absorption per development moved from 1 4 homes in 2022 to 0 9 in 2025 These are different measures and should not be mechanically combined, but together they describe a market where construction, sales velocity and buyer demand are no longer moving in step 1 The central buyer question has changed It is no longer: “How much will Tulum appreciate?” It is: “Why should this particular asset outperform the many alternatives already built, being delivered or still planned nearby?” This paper does not forecast a market bottom, future return or recovery date It uses Tulum’s reported supply and absorption evidence, together with carefully limited lessons from Marbella, Miami and Dubai, to explain what frequently follows an overbuilt cycle: price discovery, ownership transfer, functional conversion and—eventually—much sharper differentiation between scarce, durable assets and interchangeable inventory Direct conclusion: a correction does not remove buildings or erase a destination’s appeal It changes price, ownership, use and hierarchy The next Tulum will be defined less by the word luxury in a brochure than by scarcity, operating resilience, legal certainty, management and everyday liveability The evidence is a mismatch, not a single “inventory number” Tulum’s available indicators are not interchangeable Units under construction measure pipeline Homes for sale measure a stock at a point in time Annual sales are a flow Project level absorption is a sales velocity metric with its own denominator Resale estimates and vacation rental operating data are other things again That distinction matters because a weak analysis can manufacture a dramatic headline by adding numbers that do not belong together A useful analysis keeps each measure in its own lane Tulum construction pipeline: 1,466 units under construction in 2017 and 13,266 in 2023 /manus storage/tulum_construction_pipeline_e91dddd9 png Figure 1 Reported units under construction in the Tulum market context This is not a count of marketed inventory or resale stock Source: El Economista, reporting an InfoHabitat analysis using Softec and tourism data 1 Annual residential sales: 3,487 units in 2023 and 1,711 in 2025 /manus storage/tulum_annual_sales_a8aa915e png Figure 2 Reported annual residential sales This is a flow measure, not an inventory count Source: El Economista, reporting an InfoHabitat analysis using Softec and tourism data 1 Average project level absorption: 1 4 homes per development per month in 2022 and 0 9 in 2025 /manus storage/tulum_project_absorption_f1f82ff8 png Figure 3 Reported average monthly absorption per development Its denominator and time basis differ from annual sales Source: El Economista, reporting an InfoHabitat analysis using Softec and tourism data 1 | Signal | What the source reports | What it does not prove | | | :| | | Units under construction | 1,466 in 2017; 13,266 in 2023 | Current resale supply or vacancy | | Homes available for sale | 3,243 in 2019; 6,340 in 2023, in a regional for sale series | Total Tulum inventory or construction pipeline | | Annual residential sales | 3,487 in 2023; 1,711 in 2025 | Exact prices achieved or building level liquidity | | Project level absorption | 1 4 homes/month in 2022; 0 9 in 2025 | Citywide months of supply | Table note: the measures use different definitions, periods and, in one case, geographic wording They are presented